A recent survey by the US think tank, Council on Foreign Relations, highlights a potential conflict between China and Taiwan in 2025. Released on January 7, the report suggests a "moderate" likelihood of this conflict, which could significantly affect US interests. The Center for Preventive Action (CPA) identified "increased military and economic pressure by China on Taiwan" as a top concern, classifying it as a "Tier I (High Priority)" issue.
The report warns of a severe cross-strait crisis involving the US and other regional countries due to China's aggressive actions. It also mentions the possibility of a disruptive cyberattack on US infrastructure and potential armed confrontations in the South China Sea, particularly involving the Philippines.
Additionally, the report notes heightened political tensions in the US, possibly leading to domestic terrorism and violence, especially if Donald Trump is reelected. It also lists increased militant activity in Pakistan and instability in Afghanistan as "Tier II" concerns.
The "Preventive Priorities Survey 2025" is based on responses from 680 foreign policy experts and evaluates conflicts based on their likelihood and impact on US interests. The Taiwan-China issue remains a complex geopolitical conflict, with Taiwan operating independently despite China's "One China" policy, which aims for reunification.
A US think tank is a group of experts in the United States who study and provide advice on important topics like politics, economy, and security. They help people understand complex issues by doing research and sharing their findings.
The China-Taiwan conflict is a disagreement between China and Taiwan. China considers Taiwan a part of its territory, but Taiwan sees itself as a separate country. This disagreement sometimes causes tension and concerns about possible fighting.
US interests refer to the things that are important to the United States, like safety, economy, and relationships with other countries. If something happens that affects these interests, it can be a big concern for the US.
Cyberattacks are attempts by hackers to damage or steal information from computers and networks. They can cause problems for important systems like electricity, water, and communication.
The South China Sea is a large area of ocean near China, Taiwan, and other countries in Asia. It is important for trade and has many natural resources, which is why different countries sometimes argue over it.
A geopolitical conflict is a disagreement between countries that involves politics, geography, and power. These conflicts can affect many countries and are often complicated to solve.
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