US nuclear expansion unlikely to deter China: Study
War Game Simulation Reveals US Nuclear Expansion Won't Deter China in Taiwan Conflict
A recent unclassified war game by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has shown that increasing US nuclear capabilities would not prevent China from using atomic weapons in a conflict over Taiwan. The findings challenge current calls to expand the US nuclear arsenal in response to China's growing military strength.
Simulation Details
The exercise, the first large-scale unclassified simulation of a potential nuclear war over Taiwan, explored scenarios where nuclear weapons might be used. It revealed that the US's nuclear capabilities had minimal impact on Beijing's willingness to deploy nuclear arms. Instead, it highlighted the conditions under which either side might face pressure to resort to nuclear strikes.
Key Findings
The study found that Chinese forces faced the greatest pressure to use nuclear weapons when defeat seemed imminent, suggesting a shift from China's no-first-use policy. While some scenarios had favorable outcomes, complete victory was deemed unachievable with nuclear weapons involved.
Over 15 iterations, Chinese forces retreated from Taiwan five times, with four scenarios occurring without nuclear weapons. The US used nuclear weapons first in only one iteration. Three scenarios ended in mutual annihilation, and in five iterations, China gained a foothold in Taiwan using nuclear weapons.
Recommendations
The study urged Washington to consider diplomatic strategies to prevent nuclear escalation, drawing parallels to the Cuban missile crisis. CSIS senior adviser Mark Cancian emphasized the need for pre-emptive discussions with allies to identify potential concessions for China.
Eric Heginbotham, a co-author and MIT researcher, noted that the simulation did not support expanding the US tactical nuclear arsenal. Participants did not see a need for new delivery systems, and China did not perceive constraints in the US's nuclear deployment capabilities.
Doubts Revealed
War Game Simulation
A war game simulation is like a pretend battle where experts use computers to see what might happen in a real conflict. They use it to plan and understand how countries might act in a war.
US Nuclear Expansion
US nuclear expansion means the United States is thinking about making more nuclear weapons or improving the ones they already have. Nuclear weapons are very powerful bombs that can cause a lot of destruction.
Deter
To deter means to stop someone from doing something by making them afraid of the consequences. In this context, it means trying to stop China from using nuclear weapons by showing them that the US has strong nuclear power too.
Taiwan Conflict
The Taiwan conflict refers to the tensions between China and Taiwan. China sees Taiwan as part of its country, but Taiwan wants to be its own country. This can lead to disagreements and even threats of war.
CSIS
CSIS stands for the Center for Strategic and International Studies. It's a group of experts who study global security and give advice on how to keep peace.
MIT
MIT stands for the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. It's a famous university in the United States known for its research and education in science and technology.
Atomic Weapons
Atomic weapons are another name for nuclear weapons. They are very powerful bombs that use nuclear reactions to create explosions.
Cuban Missile Crisis
The Cuban Missile Crisis was a time in 1962 when the US and the Soviet Union almost went to war over nuclear missiles in Cuba. It was a scary time, but it ended peacefully through talks and agreements.
Tactical Nuclear Arsenal
A tactical nuclear arsenal is a collection of smaller nuclear weapons that are designed to be used on the battlefield, rather than for destroying entire cities.
Delivery Systems
Delivery systems are the ways in which nuclear weapons are transported and launched, like missiles, planes, or submarines. They help in getting the weapon to its target.
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