US and China's Nuclear War Game Over Taiwan: Key Insights
US and China's Nuclear War Game Over Taiwan: Key Insights
A recent war game conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) examined a potential nuclear conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan. The simulation, which was the first large-scale unclassified exercise of its kind, suggested that a US nuclear buildup might not deter China from using atomic weapons.
Simulation Findings
The exercise revealed that while favorable outcomes were possible, a complete victory was unachievable if nuclear weapons were deployed. The war game explored conditions under which both the US and China might be pushed to use nuclear arms, focusing on the pressures commanders might face in escalating a conflict to that point.
Key Scenarios
The greatest pressure for using nuclear weapons occurred when teams playing China faced defeat, raising concerns about China's commitment to not using nukes first. In the simulation, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) retreated from Taiwan five times out of 15, including four scenarios where neither side used nuclear weapons. The US was the first to use nuclear weapons in only one instance.
In another scenario, Taiwan returned to the "status quo" after the US hit PLA forces in Taiwan with nuclear weapons following a Chinese nuclear strike on Taiwanese forces. Three iterations ended in mutual annihilation, with cities destroyed and millions killed, highlighting the catastrophic risks of nuclear warfare.
Doubts Revealed
CSIS
CSIS stands for the Center for Strategic and International Studies. It is a think tank based in the United States that conducts research and analysis on various global issues, including security and defense.
MIT
MIT stands for the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. It is a famous university in the United States known for its research and education in science, engineering, and technology.
Nuclear War Game
A nuclear war game is a simulation exercise where experts try to predict what might happen if countries use nuclear weapons in a conflict. It helps them understand the possible outcomes and risks.
Taiwan
Taiwan is an island located near China. It has its own government, but China considers it a part of its territory. The US supports Taiwan's independence, which sometimes causes tension with China.
Nuclear Buildup
A nuclear buildup means increasing the number of nuclear weapons a country has. It is often done to show strength and deter other countries from attacking.
Mutual Annihilation
Mutual annihilation means that both sides in a conflict destroy each other completely. In the context of nuclear warfare, it refers to the catastrophic destruction that would occur if both countries used their nuclear weapons.
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