Justin Trudeau Faces Big Test in Montreal By-Election Amid Low Popularity
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberal Party are facing a crucial by-election in Montreal’s Lasalle-Emard-Verdun riding. The area has been a Liberal stronghold for years, but Trudeau’s popularity is currently low due to inflation and a deepening housing crisis.
Polls show a close race between the Liberals, Bloc Quebecois, and the New Democratic Party (NDP). Political analysts describe the by-election as a ‘litmus test’ for the Liberal Party, which could foreshadow their performance in the next general election, expected before October 2025.
Rick Bisaillon, a political science professor at Concordia University, remarked, ‘It’s absolutely indispensable for the Liberals to hang onto this seat.’
Trudeau’s troubles are compounded by the NDP’s decision to withdraw from a 2022 agreement that helped keep his minority government afloat. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh criticized Trudeau, stating, ‘Justin Trudeau has proven again and again he will always cave to corporate greed. The Liberals have let people down. They don’t deserve another chance.’
Amid struggling numbers, the Liberal Party is also suffering from internal dissent. Some Liberal MPs and staff have expressed frustration with Trudeau’s leadership. In June, a Liberal MP publicly urged Trudeau to step down following a by-election loss in Toronto. Others, upset by the government’s stance on international issues, have declined to assist with the Montreal campaign.
Benoit Frenette, a resident from Verdun, expressed his disappointment with the government, saying, ‘Right now, there’s a lot of dissatisfaction with Mr. Trudeau’s government, and that’s probably going to be felt.’ He added, ‘I’m more of a nationalist at heart, so in that context, the Bloc Quebecois is an option I’m considering.’
Stewart Prest, a political science lecturer at the University of British Columbia, warned that a Liberal loss could mark a significant shift. Prest stated, ‘If they are unable to hold onto this riding… it gives fresh ammunition to those who are saying it’s time for a significant change in the Liberal Party.’
A poll on Thursday found that the Bloc Quebecois candidate in Lasalle-Emard-Verdun had a lead over the Liberal and NDP candidates, while the Conservatives trailed far behind. Bloc Quebecois leads with 29.6 per cent of the vote, while the Liberals trail at 24.1 per cent. The NDP is just behind with 23 per cent, and the Conservatives lag far behind at 7.3 per cent.
Notably, PM Trudeau has been insisting that he will stay on as leader through the next election. ‘Ready for Parliament’s return next week,’ he wrote in a social media post on Wednesday. But, Prest at the University of British Columbia believes that a Liberal loss on Monday could end up being a ‘turning point’ for the party. ‘Are they willing to continue to fight under this leader, or would you start to see stronger calls from within the party for a change in leadership?’ he asked. ‘It will be fascinating to watch — if the Liberals fail to keep the seat — if indeed the MPs are essentially jolted into action or if they continue to turn their attention elsewhere and the Liberals continue to seemingly coast towards the inevitable defeat’ in the next election.
Doubts Revealed
Justin Trudeau -: Justin Trudeau is the Prime Minister of Canada. He is like the head of the government in Canada, similar to how Narendra Modi is the Prime Minister of India.
By-Election -: A by-election is a special election that happens in a specific area when a seat in the government becomes empty before the usual election time. It’s like having a class monitor election in the middle of the school year because the previous monitor left.
Montreal -: Montreal is a big city in Canada, located in the province of Quebec. It’s like how Mumbai is a big city in India.
Liberal Party -: The Liberal Party is one of the main political parties in Canada. It’s like one of the big teams in a school election.
Bloc Quebecois -: The Bloc Quebecois is a political party in Canada that mainly focuses on the interests of Quebec, a province in Canada. It’s like a group in school that wants to focus on the needs of their own class.
New Democratic Party (NDP) -: The New Democratic Party, or NDP, is another political party in Canada. They often focus on social issues and helping people, similar to how some groups in school might focus on making sure everyone is treated fairly.
Inflation -: Inflation means that the prices of things like food and clothes are going up, so people need more money to buy the same things. It’s like if your favorite candy suddenly costs more than it used to.
Housing Crisis -: A housing crisis means that it’s very hard for people to find affordable places to live. It’s like if there were not enough houses for everyone in your neighborhood, and the ones that are available are too expensive.
Political Analysts -: Political analysts are people who study and talk about politics to help others understand what’s happening. They are like the teachers who explain what’s going on in the school election.
General Election -: A general election is when people in the whole country vote to choose their leaders. It’s like the big school election where everyone votes for the head boy or head girl.
Internal Dissent -: Internal dissent means that some people within a group or party are not happy and are disagreeing with each other. It’s like if some students in a class are not happy with the class monitor and start arguing about it.
Jagmeet Singh -: Jagmeet Singh is the leader of the New Democratic Party in Canada. He is like the captain of a team in a school election.
