Why Taiwan Matters: The Big Concerns of the USA and China
During the Cold War, the USA was worried about communism spreading in Asia, which led to its involvement in the Vietnam War. Today, the USA fears that China might invade Taiwan, a democratic island, and break the First Island Chain, a key part of US defense strategy. This chain stretches from Japan to Indonesia and acts as a barrier against China’s military.
If China takes over Taiwan, it would have easy access to the Western Pacific. Taiwan is crucial not just for its strategic location but also for its 23 million citizens. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) claims Taiwan, which is just 180 km away across the Taiwan Strait.
Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy recently published a report titled “Annexation of Taiwan: A Defeat from Which the US and Its Allies Could Not Retreat.” The report, by Gabriel Collins and Andrew Erickson, warns that if China conquers Taiwan, it could trigger severe economic shocks and global conflicts.
Chinese President Xi Jinping is at the peak of his power and aims to capture Taiwan, fulfilling the “China Dream.” The report highlights four key findings:
1. Strong Motivations for Annexation
Xi wants to annex Taiwan, ideally without conflict, to gain its industrial and technological assets. Taiwan’s semiconductor industry is vital to the global economy, and its loss would disrupt supply chains.
2. Global Impact
If China controls Taiwan, it could lead to economic deprivation and future warfare. The USA’s regional credibility would suffer, and China would become the dominant power in Asia.
3. Military Repercussions
China would gain sensitive military technology and control key sea and air routes. This could affect the USA’s alliances with Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea.
4. Nuclear Proliferation
Loss of confidence in US security guarantees could lead to nuclear proliferation in Asia and beyond, destabilizing global dynamics.
The report concludes that Taiwan is like the “West Berlin” of a new Cold War. American policymakers must act urgently to deter China’s aggression and protect vital interests.
Doubts Revealed
Taiwan -: Taiwan is an island near China. It has its own government, but China wants to control it.
USA -: The USA, or United States of America, is a big country far from China. It has a strong military and cares about what happens in other parts of the world.
China -: China is a large country in Asia. It has a powerful government and a big army.
First Island Chain -: The First Island Chain is a group of islands in the Pacific Ocean. The USA uses these islands to help protect itself and its friends.
Rice University’s Baker Institute -: Rice University’s Baker Institute is a place where smart people study important problems and write reports about them.
Annexation -: Annexation means taking control of another place. China wants to take control of Taiwan.
Economic shocks -: Economic shocks are sudden problems that can make money and jobs disappear quickly.
Global conflicts -: Global conflicts are big fights between countries that can affect the whole world.
Xi Jinping -: Xi Jinping is the leader of China. He has a lot of power and makes important decisions for the country.
China Dream -: The ‘China Dream’ is Xi Jinping’s idea of making China very strong and powerful.
Military repercussions -: Military repercussions are the bad things that can happen if countries start fighting with their armies.
Nuclear proliferation -: Nuclear proliferation means more countries getting nuclear weapons, which are very powerful bombs.
Deterrence -: Deterrence means stopping someone from doing something bad by making them afraid of the consequences.
