UN Report: Pakistan’s Population to Surge, Surpassing Indonesia by 2048
A recent report by the United Nations highlights significant demographic changes for Pakistan. According to the UN’s World Population Prospects 2024 report, Pakistan’s population, currently over 245 million, is expected to grow until 2054, potentially peaking at 404.68 million by 2092. By 2048, Pakistan’s population is projected to surpass Indonesia’s, reaching 331.29 million.
Between 1998 and 2017, Pakistan experienced an average annual population growth rate of 2.40 per cent, translating to an increase of approximately 5.28 million people per year. The high birth rate of 22 births per 1,000 people significantly contributes to this growth. The report notes that very few women in Pakistan use birth control, which could strain water, sanitation, health, and education systems.
Since gaining independence in 1947, Pakistan’s population has grown markedly, partly due to the influx of people moving their families and businesses to the new country. Compared to other nations in the region, Pakistan’s growth rate is about 2.1 per cent higher. If the current trend continues, Pakistan’s population could double what it was in 2001 within the next 35 years. Although the growth rate is close to 2 per cent now, it is expected to decrease to less than 1 per cent by 2050, with the population projected to exceed 300 million.
Globally, the report states that the world population reached nearly 8.2 billion by mid-2024 and is expected to grow by another two billion over the next 60 years, peaking at around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s before declining to approximately 10.2 billion. These findings were revealed in the report published by the UN to coincide with World Population Day.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the importance of accurate population data, stating, “Our rich human tapestry is only as strong as its weakest thread. When data and other systems work for those on the margins, they work for everyone. This is how we accelerate progress for all.”
The 28th edition of the World Population Prospects (WPP) provides the latest demographic data for 237 countries from 1950 to 2024 and projections up to 2100. The WPP is crucial for monitoring the Sustainable Development Goals, with about a quarter of the indicators relying on its data.
The report highlights that global fertility rates are dropping, with women having one child fewer on average compared to around 1990. In more than half of all countries, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1, the level required for a population to maintain a constant size. Nearly a fifth of all countries, including China, Italy, South Korea, and Spain, now have “ultra-low fertility,” with fewer than 1.4 live births per woman over a lifetime.
As of 2024, population size has peaked in 63 countries, including China, Germany, Japan, and Russia, with their total population projected to decline by 14 percent over the next thirty years. Additionally, the average age of the global population is increasing. By the late 2070s, the number of persons aged 65 years or older is projected to surpass those under 18. This shift is partly due to increased life expectancy and decreased mortality rates over the past three decades.
While population growth or decline is occurring mainly in high-income countries, rapid population growth will continue in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Very rapid growth is projected in Angola, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Niger, and Somalia, with their total populations expected to double between 2024 and 2054. This growth will increase demand for resources, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, exacerbating environmental impacts.
In countries including India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the United States, the population is also expected to increase through 2054 and could potentially peak in the second half of the century or later. Central to population and development is the “recognition that women’s sexual and reproductive health and reproductive rights are cornerstones of sustainable development,” said Secretary-General Guterres. Early pregnancies remain a significant challenge in low-income countries. In 2024, 4.7 million babies, or about 3.5 per cent of the total worldwide, were born to mothers under 18, with serious consequences for the health and well-being of both the young mothers and their children.
Investing in the education of young people, especially girls, and increasing the ages of marriage and first childbearing in countries where these occur early, will yield positive outcomes for women’s health, educational attainment, and labour force participation. These efforts will also contribute to reducing the scale of investments required to achieve sustainable development while ensuring that no one is left behind.
