Sanjeev Sanyal Predicts India’s GDP to Reach $4 Trillion at Cambridge India Conference
During the Cambridge India Conference held at the historic Cambridge Union, Sanjeev Sanyal, a member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India, forecast that India’s GDP will reach USD 4 trillion this year, outpacing global growth rates.
India’s Economic Growth
Sanyal shared insights into India’s remarkable economic growth trajectory and future prospects while engaging in dialogue with Kishen Shastry, a PhD economist from the University of Cambridge. He highlighted India’s ambitious goal to surpass the USD 4 trillion GDP mark and solidify its position as the world’s fastest-growing economy.
“This year, India’s GDP will reach USD 4 trillion, putting us on par with Japan in terms of economic size. We continue to lead as the world’s fastest-growing economy by a significant margin. Last year, our growth rate surprised us at 8.2 per cent, and we anticipate over 7 per cent growth this year, outpacing all major economies,” Sanyal stated.
Rapid Economic Milestones
Sanyal emphasized the compounding effects of India’s growth rate, noting the rapid pace at which economic milestones have been achieved. He explained that after liberalization, it took 16-17 years to cross the first trillion dollars mark, another 7 years to reach the 2 trillion dollars mark in 2014-15, and another 7 years to hit the 3 trillion dollars mark in 2021-22. Despite losing 2 years due to COVID-19, India is set to cross 4 trillion dollars in just 3 years and will need only 2 years to cross 5 trillion dollars unless some major unseen shock happens.
Maintaining Stability and Reforms
Sanyal underscored the importance of maintaining macroeconomic stability, addressing non-performing assets in banks, bureaucratic reforms, enhancing global trade engagement, and investing in sustainable energy through renewables and green technologies. “Our well-capitalized banks and maintained macroeconomic stability during COVID-19 were critical. While we sustain growth, we’re committed to supporting vulnerable populations through direct transfers to alleviate poverty,” Sanyal remarked.
Legal and Administrative Reforms
Regarding legal reforms, Sanyal called for modernizing India’s legal system. “Administrative and judicial reforms are essential. We need a modern legal system for efficient justice and contract enforcement,” he emphasized.
Global Economic Projections
India is expected to overtake Japan and Germany to emerge as the world’s third-largest economy by 2027. Currently, in US dollar terms, India is the fifth largest economy with a size of about USD 3.7 trillion in nominal terms. Notably, earlier in June, Shaktikanta Das, Reserve Bank of India Governor, stated that India is at the threshold of a major structural shift in its growth trajectory, moving towards 8 per cent GDP growth in a sustained manner.
According to the recently unveiled data by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, India’s GDP surpassed all expectations and stood at 7.8 per cent in the January-March quarter. The full-year 2023-24 GDP has been revised upwards to 8.2 per cent from the second advance estimate of 7.6 per cent. While the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Fitch Ratings have estimated India’s growth at 7 per cent, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), S&P Global Ratings and Morgan Stanley projected a 6.8 per cent growth rate for FY25.
