June 2024 Auto Sales: Mixed Results for Two-Wheelers, Cars, and Tractors

In June 2024, the automobile industry is expected to see mixed results in wholesale volumes. Analysts predict that two-wheelers will show resilience, while passenger vehicles (PVs) and commercial vehicles (CVs) may experience slight declines. Tractor volumes are likely to remain flat.

Despite an overall growth trajectory led by Honda, two-wheeler companies might see a single-digit decline in wholesale volumes. Year-to-date growth for the sector has been strong, with a 15% increase. Looking ahead, experts foresee a promising outlook, with two-wheelers expected to outperform other categories. Projections for FY25 indicate an 11% growth rate for two-wheelers, 5% for PVs and CVs, and 4% for tractors.

Key original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) like Hero MotoCorp, TVS Motors, and Mahindra & Mahindra are identified as preferred picks. TVS Motors is expected to report a 3% increase in volumes, while Royal Enfield may see a 16% decline. Hero MotoCorp and Bajaj Auto are likely to see marginal declines of 5% and 4%, respectively.

In the passenger vehicle segment, Mahindra & Mahindra is projected to lead with a 32% rise in volumes, while Maruti Suzuki is expected to maintain flat volumes. Tata Motors may witness a 5% decline. Variations in blended discounts were noted, with increases for Maruti Suzuki but reductions for Tata Motors.

Commercial vehicle volumes are expected to experience a slight downturn. VECV (Volvo Eicher Commercial Vehicles) is likely to achieve a 6% increase, and Ashok Leyland a 4% rise. Conversely, Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra are expected to see declines of 3% and 2%, respectively.

The tractor market is anticipated to show stable volumes, with Mahindra & Mahindra and Escorts expected to report a modest 1% increase.

The retail market faced challenges with a month-on-month decline of 10-15% due to the absence of auspicious wedding dates.