India’s GDP to Grow Faster Than China’s in 2024 and 2025, Says S&P Global Market Intelligence

S&P Global Market Intelligence has revised China’s GDP forecast upward but still projects it to grow slower than India. According to the report, India’s GDP is expected to grow at a rate of 6.7% in 2024 and 6.3% in 2025. In contrast, China’s GDP is forecasted to grow at 5.0% in 2024 and 4.6% in 2025.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also raised India’s GDP forecast for FY25 from 7% to 7.2%. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das stated, “The real GDP growth for the current financial year 2024-25 is projected at 7.2% with Q1 at 7.3%, Q2 at 7.2%, Q3 at 7.3%, and Q4 at 7.2%. The risks are evenly balanced.” He also mentioned that the inflation projection remains at 4.5% for the year.

S&P Global Market Intelligence has lowered the growth forecasts for the US, Canada, Brazil, and Japan for 2024, while it has revised upward the forecasts for China, the Eurozone, the UK, and Russia. The global growth forecast for 2025 has increased from 2.7% to 2.8%, with higher forecasts for some larger countries, including the US and China.

In the Asia-Pacific region, excluding mainland China and Japan, real GDP growth is expected to remain stable at 4.4% in 2024 and 2025, driven by strong domestic demand and recovering exports. A pickup in overseas demand is seen as the key growth driver for the region in 2024.