India Exim Bank Predicts Growth in India’s Exports for Q2 FY2025
The Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) has projected that India’s total merchandise exports are expected to reach USD 111.7 billion, marking a year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 4.2% in the second quarter (July-September) of the fiscal year 2025. Non-oil exports are anticipated to amount to USD 89.8 billion, reflecting a y-o-y growth of 6.26%.
The quarterly report suggests that the country’s economy continues to demonstrate strong activity, driven by sustained momentum in both the manufacturing and services sectors. Additionally, expected global monetary easing and improving demand prospects from trading partners are likely to bolster export performance.
However, the forecast is not without risks. Uncertain prospects for advanced economies, geopolitical tensions, the ongoing crisis in West Asia, global supply chain disruptions, and increasing geo-economic fragmentation pose potential challenges that could impact these projections.
India’s merchandise and non-oil export sectors have shown positive growth for three consecutive quarters, a trend that is expected to persist into Q2 FY2025. The forecasts for growth in India’s merchandise and non-oil exports are part of India Exim Bank’s quarterly reports, which are released during the first fortnight of May, August, November, and February, covering the corresponding quarters.
These projections are based on the bank’s proprietary Export Leading Index (ELI) model. The next forecast, covering the third quarter of FY2025 (October-December 2024), is scheduled for release in the first fortnight of November 2024.
The ELI model, developed by India Exim Bank as part of its ongoing research initiatives, serves as a leading indicator for tracking and forecasting movements in India’s exports. It incorporates a wide range of external and domestic factors that can influence the country’s export performance. The model and its results are subject to regular review and validation by a standing technical committee of domain experts, including Dr. Sunil Kumar, Adviser, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India; Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University; Professor NR Bhanumurthy, Director, Madras School of Economics; and Professor C Veeramani, Director, Centre for Development Studies.
Doubts Revealed
India Exim Bank -: India Exim Bank is a government-owned bank that helps Indian companies export and import goods. It provides financial assistance and support to businesses involved in international trade.
Q2 FY2025 -: Q2 FY2025 refers to the second quarter of the financial year 2025. In India, the financial year starts in April and ends in March, so Q2 FY2025 means the period from July to September 2024.
merchandise exports -: Merchandise exports are goods that a country sells to other countries. These can include things like clothes, electronics, and machinery.
non-oil exports -: Non-oil exports are goods that a country sells to other countries, excluding oil and petroleum products. This can include items like textiles, software, and agricultural products.
year-on-year growth -: Year-on-year growth means comparing the performance of something, like exports, from one year to the same period in the next year. It shows how much it has increased or decreased.
global monetary easing -: Global monetary easing refers to actions taken by central banks around the world to make borrowing money cheaper and easier. This can help boost economic activity and trade.
geopolitical tensions -: Geopolitical tensions are conflicts or disagreements between countries. These can affect trade and economic relationships, making it harder for countries to do business with each other.
global supply chain disruptions -: Global supply chain disruptions happen when there are problems in the process of producing and delivering goods around the world. This can be caused by things like natural disasters, political issues, or pandemics.
