ICICI Securities Predicts Nifty to Reach 25,200 by December 2024 and 50,000 by 2030
The strength of the Indian stock market is expected to continue as ICICI Securities Ltd. forecasts that the Nifty index will reach 25,200 by December 2024. The long-term goal is for the Nifty to hit 50,000 by 2030.
What is Nifty?
The Nifty is a benchmark Indian stock market index representing the weighted average of 50 of the largest Indian companies listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE).
Support Levels and Historical Trends
ICICI Securities expects a strong support level at 22,200, meaning the index is likely to stay above this level even if it faces some downturns. Historically, during election years since 1999, the Nifty index has typically increased by around 21% from its lowest point after the election to the end of the year. These gains usually come with small dips of 4-6%, offering good buying opportunities.
Global Market Influence
When the US goes into presidential elections, global markets generally rise. In the last five US election years, US markets have gained about 9% from June to December, while the Nifty has gained around 20%, except in 2008. Steady global markets are expected to act as a tailwind for domestic equities.
Local and Foreign Investments
Local investments have helped counter the selling by foreign investors. If foreign investment picks up in the second half of 2024, along with possible interest rate cuts in the US, it will further improve market liquidity.
Market Breadth and Stock Picks
Market breadth, which measures how many stocks are rising versus falling, supports a positive outlook. Midcap and small-cap stocks are in a strong upward trend and are expected to gain over 16% by the end of the year. ICICI Securities suggests top picks in the BFSI sector such as SBI, Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Bank of Baroda. Under the PSUs, its top picks are HAL, BEL, Sail, Coal India, NTPC, Engineers India, NMDC, Concor, and Union Bank of India.
Optimism for the Current Year
ICICI Securities is optimistic about the current year, noting that the fourth year of the decade has always been positive with acceleration in returns to higher teens. Such returns do not come in a linear fashion, and corrections of around 15% along the way have always been a buying opportunity.
