Experts Warn: Trump’s Return Could Risk Taiwan’s Safety
Foreign relations experts have raised concerns that if Donald Trump, the US Republican presidential nominee, wins the upcoming election, it could weaken alliances and pose risks for Taiwan. Trump will face President Joe Biden in November, provided Biden withstands pressure to step aside due to his age. Their differing foreign policies have significant implications for Taiwan.
Potential Risks Under Trump
Jacques deLisle, director of the University of Pennsylvania’s Centre for the Study of Contemporary China, stated that a Biden victory would likely mean continuity in Taiwan policy. However, a Trump victory would be unpredictable, with Republican lawmakers likely following Trump’s lead, posing risks for Taiwan. Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy, including demands for Taiwan to pay more for American defense, shows his stance towards NATO. DeLisle argued that Trump does not value American commitments to allies, which could weaken US relationships with Japan, South Korea, and others, affecting cooperation to deter China.
Biden’s Stance on Taiwan
Since taking office in 2021, Biden has repeatedly stated his willingness to defend Taiwan and has not ruled out military action. The US has often emphasized the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait in its meetings with allies.
Concerns from Experts
David Sacks, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote that a Trump victory would present allies with a president who views diplomacy as transactional. This dilemma will be keenly felt in Taiwan. Sacks noted that Trump was popular in Taiwan before leaving office in 2021, but recent comments have cast doubt on whether this support would continue if he were re-elected. Sacks observed that Taiwan had downplayed Trump’s remarks by pointing to bipartisan support in the US and the emphasis on Taiwan’s importance by former Trump administration officials.
Implications for US Alliances
Some believe that the US should fully deter China from attacking Taiwan and defend Taiwan due to its strategic location, economic significance, and democratic governance. However, such points may not convince Trump, who is skeptical of US alliances, viewing them as ‘free riders.’ If the US does not defend Taiwan, it could signal to allies that they must take responsibility for their own security, which Trump believes would ultimately benefit America.
Misunderstandings and Cooperation
Jacques deLisle further mentioned that Trump’s claim of Taiwan stealing the American semiconductor industry was a misunderstanding. Chip design and development are largely based in the US, while manufacturers like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. are in Taiwan, representing a cooperative relationship.
Sacks concluded that Trump’s comments on Taiwan are consistent with his worldview and unlikely to change.
Doubts Revealed
Donald Trump -: Donald Trump is a businessman and politician who was the President of the United States from 2017 to 2021.
US presidential election -: The US presidential election is a process where people in the United States vote to choose their President, who leads the country.
Taiwan -: Taiwan is an island near China that has its own government. China claims Taiwan as part of its territory, but Taiwan wants to stay independent.
alliances -: Alliances are agreements between countries to support each other, especially in times of trouble or war.
transactional approach to diplomacy -: A transactional approach to diplomacy means making deals where each side gives something to get something, like a business transaction.
defense -: Defense refers to the protection of a country from attacks or threats, often involving the military.
commitments -: Commitments are promises or agreements to do something, like helping a friend when they need it.
President Joe Biden -: Joe Biden is the current President of the United States, elected in 2020. He was also the Vice President from 2009 to 2017.
stability -: Stability means things staying steady and not changing too much, which helps people feel safe and secure.
skepticism -: Skepticism means doubting or not fully believing in something.
cooperation -: Cooperation means working together with others to achieve a common goal.
China -: China is a large country in Asia, known for its big population and strong economy. It has different political views from many other countries.