China’s Military Tactics to Isolate Taiwan: Concerns Rise Over Potential Quarantine
China’s military might isolate Taiwan and cripple its economy without firing a shot, according to a Washington think tank. Concerns about China’s intentions have grown due to Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s aggressive stance and refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Potential Strategies
Analysts and military strategists suggest China has two key options: a full-scale invasion or a military blockade. However, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington highlights a third option: quarantine. This method involves ‘gray zone’ tactics, actions just below the threshold of war.
The China Coast Guard, its maritime militia, and various police and maritime safety agencies could enforce a full or partial quarantine of Taiwan, potentially cutting off access to its ports and essential supplies, such as energy, for the island’s 23 million people. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) might play only auxiliary and support roles, according to CSIS authors Bonny Lin, Brian Hart, Matthew Funaiole, Samantha Lu, and Truly Tinsley.
Increased Pressure
China has significantly increased pressure on Taiwan in recent years, stoking fears that tensions could erupt into outright conflict. Much attention has been paid to the threat of an invasion, but Beijing has options besides invading to coerce, punish, or annex Taiwan.
Warnings from China
China’s Minister of National Defence Admiral Dong Jun recently warned ‘external forces’ against emboldening Taiwan Independence separatists, stating that these actions are dragging Taiwan into a dangerous situation. He said that anyone who dares to separate Taiwan from China will ‘end up in self-destruction.’ He accused the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities of pursuing Taiwan’s separation incrementally and erasing the Chinese identity of Taiwan.
Gray Zone Tactics
Since September 2020, China has intensified its use of gray zone tactics by increasing the number of military aircraft and naval ships operating near Taiwan’s territory. Gray zone tactics are efforts beyond steady-state deterrence and assurance that attempt to achieve security objectives without direct and sizable use of force.
This latest incident adds to a series of similar provocations by China in recent months. China has increased its military activities around Taiwan, including regular air and naval incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). Taiwan, officially known as the Republic of China, has long been a contentious issue in China’s foreign policy. China continues to assert its sovereignty over Taiwan and considers it a part of its territory, insisting on eventual reunification, by force if necessary.
