Allan Lichtman Predicts Kamala Harris to Become First Woman President
Introduction
Allan Lichtman, a well-known American historian and political scientist, has a strong track record of predicting US presidential elections. He now forecasts that Kamala Harris will defeat Donald Trump in the upcoming election, making her the first woman president of the United States.
The Prediction System
Lichtman, a professor at American University, developed a prediction system called the ‘Keys to the White House’ with Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981. This system, which has accurately predicted every US presidential election since 1984, uses 13 keys to determine the outcome. If six or more keys are against the incumbent party, they are predicted to lose.
Current Prediction
According to Lichtman, only four keys are against the incumbent Democrats, meaning Donald Trump is unlikely to return to the White House. The keys lost by the Democrats include the mandate key, incumbency key, incumbent charisma key, and foreign policy failure key.
Factors Favoring Democrats
Lichtman highlights several factors working in favor of the Democrats, such as no recession in the election year, a united party around Harris, and the absence of a significant scandal. Additionally, Biden’s policies differ from Trump’s, and the Democrats have succeeded in foreign policy by forming a coalition against Putin.
Kamala Harris’s Historic Candidacy
Kamala Harris, currently the Vice President, is the first woman, Black, and Asian American to hold the position. If elected, she would make history as the first woman president. She faces Donald Trump, who aims to return to the White House after his 2020 defeat.
Conclusion
Lichtman stands by his prediction of a Harris victory, dismissing the idea of an ‘October surprise’ affecting the outcome. He contrasts Trump’s inward-looking policies with Harris’s collaborative approach with allies, stating that America’s global standing has improved since Trump’s presidency.
Doubts Revealed
Allan Lichtman -: Allan Lichtman is a famous historian and political scientist who studies history and politics. He is known for predicting the outcomes of US presidential elections accurately.
Kamala Harris -: Kamala Harris is the current Vice President of the United States. If she becomes president, she would be the first woman to hold this position in the US.
Donald Trump -: Donald Trump is a businessman and politician who was the 45th President of the United States. He is known for his unique style and policies.
‘Keys to the White House’ -: ‘Keys to the White House’ is a system created by Allan Lichtman to predict who will win the US presidential elections. It uses different factors to make predictions.
Democrats -: The Democrats are one of the two major political parties in the United States. They often focus on issues like healthcare, education, and social equality.
Economic stability -: Economic stability means that the economy is doing well, with jobs available and prices not rising too fast. It is an important factor in elections because people want a strong economy.
Foreign policy -: Foreign policy refers to how a country interacts with other countries. It includes decisions about trade, alliances, and international relations.
