Allan Lichtman Predicts Kamala Harris to Become First Woman US President
Allan Lichtman, a well-known American historian and political scientist, has predicted that Kamala Harris will become the first woman President of the United States, defeating Donald Trump in the upcoming elections. Lichtman, a professor at American University, uses a prediction system called ‘Keys to the White House,’ which has accurately forecasted US presidential elections since 1984.
The Prediction System
The ‘Keys to the White House’ system, developed with Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, uses 13 keys to predict election outcomes. If six or more keys go against the incumbent party, they are predicted to lose. Currently, only four keys are against the Democrats, suggesting a win for Harris.
Keys Against Democrats
The Democrats lose the mandate key, incumbency key, incumbent charisma key, and foreign policy failure key. However, they still hold nine keys in their favor.
Keys in Favor of Democrats
The Democrats benefit from no recession, a united party, and no significant scandals. They also gain from Biden’s foreign policy successes and economic growth.
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Kamala Harris, the current Vice President, could make history as the first woman and first person of mixed Asian and African descent to become President. Donald Trump, aiming for a non-consecutive second term, faces challenges due to his narrow appeal and past controversies.
October Surprise and Swing States
Lichtman dismisses the idea of an ‘October surprise’ affecting the election outcome and stands by his prediction, noting that swing states do not alter the keys.
America’s Global Standing
Lichtman contrasts Trump’s inward-looking policies with Harris’s approach of working with allies, stating that America’s global standing has improved since Trump’s presidency.
Doubts Revealed
Allan Lichtman -: Allan Lichtman is a historian and political scientist known for predicting the outcomes of US presidential elections accurately since 1984 using his ‘Keys to the White House’ system.
Kamala Harris -: Kamala Harris is the Vice President of the United States and, if elected, would become the first woman to serve as the US President.
Donald Trump -: Donald Trump is a former President of the United States who served from 2017 to 2021 and is a well-known political figure in the US.
‘Keys to the White House’ system -: The ‘Keys to the White House’ is a prediction system created by Allan Lichtman that uses 13 true/false statements to forecast the outcome of US presidential elections.
Democrats -: The Democrats, or the Democratic Party, is one of the two major political parties in the United States, generally associated with more liberal policies.
October surprise -: An ‘October surprise’ refers to a news event that happens just before an election, potentially influencing the outcome. Lichtman believes it won’t affect the election in this case.
US global standing -: US global standing refers to how the United States is viewed and respected by other countries around the world. Under President Biden, it is said to have improved.
